Is Dubai Oversupplied?

Key Facts: Dubai Population and Real Estate Price Index (2000-2024)

Population Growth

• Dubai's population increased 4.2x, from 862,000 in 2000 to approximately 3.59 million by 2024
• The growth rate was particularly steep between 2005-2010, with population increasing by 44% in this five-year period
• The city has maintained consistent population growth even during global economic downturns

Real Estate Price Index

• Property prices grew 4.9x overall, from index 35 in 2000 to 170 in 2024 (using 2010 as base year=100)
• Two major price cycles are evident: a peak in 2007 (index 120) before the global financial crisis, and another in 2014 (index 170)
• The market experienced a significant correction after 2014, declining to index 110 by 2020
• Post-pandemic recovery has been strong, with prices returning to 2014 peak levels by 2024

Market Patterns

• Real estate prices have shown significantly more volatility than population growth
• Price recovery after 2020 coincided with global pandemic recovery and renewed investor interest
• Despite price fluctuations, the long-term growth trend for both metrics demonstrates Dubai's emergence as a global city
• Population growth has been more resilient than property prices during economic downturns

Correlation

• While both metrics show strong overall growth, property prices have been more cyclical than population figures
• Periods of accelerated population growth often precede property price increases

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